So our comrades over at Rays Colored Glasses have posted two excellent pieces (linked below) entitled Remembering our Roots: Looking at Pro Baseball in Tampa Prior to the Rays. It goes without saying that baseball has an extremely rich history in our area, stretching all the way back into the late 1800′s. A lot of people outside of the immediate Tampa Bay area, and Florida in general, would have you believe that our area is a poor environment for baseball. And unfortunately for them, what those folks don’t know certainly hurts their credibility! We here at Raysbaseball.co highly recommend that you mosey on over to the Rays Colored Glasses site, and check out those pieces along with the other quality pieces that they crank out on a consistent basis.
This tweet from Sean Rodriguez reminds us Rays fans, that Spring Training is just around the corner. I, for one, cannot WAIT for baseball season season to begin!
January 27, 2012 Update: I’ve updated this piece (hopefully) one last time. This time around, I re-posted the SS poll from earlier in the week, and added Jeff Keppinger to the list of short-stops/middle infielders that you can choose from. The poll is conveniently located at the bottom of this piece. If you haven’t taken part in our poll yet, what’cha waiting for?!
Going in to the 2011/12 Hot-Stove period, one thing was apparent: The Rays would need to improve in a few areas, namely catching, first base, DH, and short-stop/middle infield*. With the off-season acquisitions of Luke Scott, Carlos Pena, and Jose Molina, the holes in the Rays roster seemed to be all but filled…that is with the exception of short-stop/middle infield. Yet, with less than 25 days until the pitchers and catchers report to camp, Tampa Bay finds itself with a happy conundrum of sorts. See, the Rays will enter spring training with four, potentially five, players vying for the short-stop/middle infield position on the roster. It’s all but certain that Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson, and Will Rhymes will battle it out for one of the three short-stop/middle infield spots on the Rays opening day roster. In the spirit of full disclosure, I’m assuming that the Rays will have three short-stop/middle infield spots on the roster based on last season when Rodriguez, Brignac, and Johnson filled those spots. With this piece we’ll compare those four players offensive and defensive stats to see if we can figure out who might be the best suited for a middle infield roster opening, and who could benefit from a little time in AAA Durham. Let’s start with Sean Rodriguez.
With the trade of Jason Bartlett, someone had to step up to the plate and fill his shoes, urm…cleats. It was obvious at the time that the Rays had some talent on their bench. The question begged, who would fill that position: Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez? While Brignac waded in mediocrity at the plate, eventually finding him in Durham for a time, Rodriguez filled the SS hole more often, platooning with Elliot Johnson. Armed with a sure glove and a good arm, Rodriguez did well defensively. Unfortunately, he was a fairly inconsistent batter (overall) in 2011, hitting .223/.323 OBP/.430 SLG/.761 OPS, with 8 home runs, and 36 RBI’s, on 83 hits in 373 at bats. Though his numbers were fairly lackluster over the span of the entire season, one need look no further than his April, May, and September numbers to get an idea of what he is capable of. Rodriguez, cumulatively, hit .240 BA/.767 OPS/27 RBI in 172 at bats. Too, Rodriguez had his fewest number of strikeouts in September with 10, and tied his high water mark for walks at eight. FanGraphs projects that Rodriguez could hit .246 in 480 at bats in 2012, some 20 points higher than in 2011. He’s also projected to knock in 65 RBI’s, more than doubling last years total. With more productive at bats, less strike outs, and an increased OBA, Rodriguez has the potential to double his offensive production, over last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a break out season of sorts, hitting about his projected batting average.
Defensively speaking, Rodriguez is the most sure handed player of the lot. Rodriguez appeared in 131 games in 2011, and committed 11 errors over the course of the 525 innings that he spent between both short-stop and second base. Comparatively speaking, at a .994 cumulative fielding percentage (FP), Rodriguez is15 points higher than Brignac, 16 points higher than Rhymes, and six points higher than Johnson. Next up: Reid Brignac.
Sean Rodriguez Advanced Batting Statistics
Sean Rodriguez Fielding Statistics
We learned, back in December, that the Rays would be willing to deal Brignac in order to bolster Tampa Bay’s offense. Though a deal involving Brignac has yet come to fruition, the threat of a deal should have sent Reid a very specific message: put up good numbers in 2012, or expect to be moved back down to Durham in the least, or dealt away at most. To say that Brignac had a pretty pathetic 2011 is like saying it’s hot here in Florida during the summer. That is to say, Captain Obvious couldn’t do a better job stating the obvious. Brignac had a slash-line of .193 BA/.227 OBP/.221 SLG/.448 OPS with 15 RBI’s on 48 hits, and 63 strikeouts in 249 at bats, all over the span of the 92 games he appeared in. These numbers are certainly not indicative of his nom de plume, Louisiana Lightning. Brignac has been projected by Rotochamp to increase his batting average by 48 points in 195 at bats. However, he is only projected to tack on four more RBI’s to his less than stellar 2011 showing. I think it would be safe to say his place on the Rays roster would be up for grabs if these projections do indeed pan out. It’s a shame really. Defensively, Brignac is a fairly solid player. With a .979 FP over the course of 683 innings of play, Brignac made seven errors, five of which were fielding errors. To be blunt, if his offense held a candle to his defense, his name could easily be penciled in the roster. Next on the hot seat: Elliot Johnson.
Reid Brignac Advanced Batting Statistics
Reid Brignac Fielding Statistics
Elliot Johnson found himself in similar straights last year. He, however, was never bumped back down to AAA. Johnson had a slash line of .194 BA/.257 OBP/.338 SLG/.595 OPS, with 17 RBI’s in 31 hits, including four home-runs and 53 strike outs in 160 at bats. Johnson had similar numbers to Reid Brignac, but two differences stand out: A) Johnson’s numbers are based on a smaller sample size, B) Johnson walked more and struck out less within that smaller sample size. Johnson is projected to have 180 at bats in 2012, and yet again produce more, and strike out less than Brignac. Johnson is also fairly good defensively, but his smaller sample size makes it hard to gauge how well he’d perform over the duration of a whole season because of that. Finally: Will Rhymes.
Elliot Johnson Advanced Batting Statistics
Elliot Johnson Fielding Statistics
Rhymes can be summed up in a one line simple description: a contact hitter with low power and a good walk rate. A career .283 hitter with (close to) a 1 BB/K ratio, Rhymes hit .306 BA/.377 OBP/.390 SLG/.767 OPS in 2010, with 19 RBI’s on 58 hits, including 12 doubles. Comparatively speaking, in 2012 Rhymes is projected to produce similarly to 2010 with around 40 more at bats. With that increased number of at bats, it can be assumed that he could drive in 10 (give or take) more runs. Defensively, Rhymes is slightly above average, and comparable to Elliot Johnson. Rhymes has a career .982 FP, and has committed only six errors in 600 innings. It bears mentioning that Rhymes has that Sam Fuld, play hard and put it all out there, quality.
Will Rhymes Advanced Batting Statistics
Will Rhymes Fielding Statistics
If the potential for Rodriguez, Brignac, Johnson, and Rhymes to make the roster was based solely on their Wins Above Replacement probability (WARp), it would look something like this: Sean Rodriguez (1.2), Will Rhymes (-0.2), Elliot Johnson (-0.3), and Reid Brignac (-0.6). That looks good to me, if only it was that simple though. For one, Rhymes signed a minor league contract, and you could expect that Tampa Bay would treat him in a similar fashion with that of Casey Kotchman at the beginning of last season. Start him in Durham, and see how things play out. Then again, you never know. Rodriguez and Brignac will probably battle it out for the primary short-stop spot, leaving Johnson and Rhymes to battle it out for that middle infield utility position. Personally, I’d love to see Rodriguez as the primary short-stop going into spring training…let the other three battle it out for the last two spots.
*I included middle infield because though it can be assumed that Ben Zobrist will be an everyday player, we can’t be certain exactly where. I’d expect him to play consistently in the two spots that he spent most of his time last season: second base and right field.
January 26, 2012 Update:
I’ve had to rethink things a bit since it was officially announced that Tampa Bay signed a one year deal with Jeff Keppinger. I think it would be safe to assume that with the two off-season acquisitions, the three on the roster in 2011, as well as Rays’ minor league prospects Hak Ju Lee and Tim Beckham, who were also invited to spring training, that there will be steady competition for the short-stop/middle infield spot.
I still think that Sean Rodriguez could be an everyday player, or in the least, consistently in the lineup. I also think that Ben Zobrist will be in the lineup close to everyday, though whether he’s playing the infield or outfield would be determined by the pitching matchups vs. Matt Joyce. That being said, Tampa Bay now has a plethora of players to choose from, to fill those spots when Rodriguez and Zobrist aren’t in the lineup.
I’m not sure if Hak Ju Lee or Tim Beckham is ready to make the leap from AAA to the big leagues just yet. True, the Rays have put players that could be considered 4A players into the lineup (cough, Brignac and Johnson) in the past. Mind you, neither Brignac nor Johnson has excelled at this level. I firmly believe that Brignac and Johnson were previously in the lineup to fill holes in the roster. Now, there are potentially suitable replacements for them.
In kind, though Lee and Beckham are projected to have decent years at the plate, and both are good defensively. One thing is holding them back, and I think it’s enough to give them another year in AAA to work out the kinks; their plate discipline just isn’t there. RotoChamp’s projections have them, cumulatively, striking out 312 times. Granted, RotoChamp also has them cumulatively driving in 99 runs, I fear that if what Johnny Damon said is true about lack of production out of the SS spot is true, (mind you, odds are against both of them coming up at the same time) then I’m not certain if bringing up those players at the beginning of the season is an improvement offensively or not.
As I mentioned before, I think it’s safe to assume that Brignac will start the season on the Rays roster, finding Rhymes in Durham. Keppinger doesn’t change things on that end, in my eyes at least. And again, it’s not a question of if Brignac will be sent down or dealt away; rather it’s a question of when. Rhymes will come up at some point sooner or later to fill that vacated spot. If anyone is to be odd-man-out because of Keppinger, it’s Elliot Johnson. Let’s take a look at the Rays newest acquisition.
Jeff Keppinger, 31, can be described as Elliot Johnson, but better offensively. Keppinger spent time with two teams in 2011, the Giants and the Astros, and in 400 plate appearances he hit .277 BA/.300 OBP/.377 SLG/.295 OBA. RotoChamp has him upping his production all across the board in 2012. Keppinger has great eyes and patience, and you’ve got to love his 2010 walk to strike-out ratio of 1.5 BB/K. The defensive side of things is where the comparisons to Elliot Johnson can be drawn. Similar to Johnson, Keppinger has a good glove, but seems to be lacking in the range department. He’s slightly above average but nothing to write home about. Like Johnson, Keppinger is best suited as a reserve player. I think he has enough to, thankfully, snag that spot away from Elliot Johnson.
With all of this in mind, I think will see Rodriguez, Brignac, and Keppinger on the opening day roster, while Rhymes waits with baited breath, in Durham, for his chance to come back up to the bigs.
Here’s the deal, I’m tired and it’s easier for me to just re-post a screen-shot of a MLBTraderumors post on the imminent signing of utility infielder, Jeff Keppinger. I’ll post more on this later. In the meantime, it looks like that lil ol battle for short-stop/middle infielder just got a bit more interesting!
The Rays are reportedly interested in INF Jeff Keppinger, who split his time with the Astros and Giants in 2011. Keppinger hit .277 BA/.300 OBP/.377 SLG/.677 OPS with 39 runs (35 RBI) and 105 at-bats in 99 games last year. With the potential to add Keppinger to the Rodriguez-Brignac-Rhymes-Johnson infield fray, as they say, it just got real. More on this to come.
With the recent acquisition of former Tigers infielder, Will Rhymes, the Rays find themselves in an interesting position. Going into Spring Training, the Rays will effectively have four infielders, or outright short stops, battling it out for a spot on the roster. We’re diligently writing about the battle for shortstop at the moment. However, we’d like to know what you think! Should Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac battle it out for the starting SS position, while Will Rhymes and Elliot Johnson go at it for a utility infielder position? Go ahead and take our poll below. Feel free to add comments in the, well, comments section for why you think that player should get one of the spots on the roster.
With the acquisitions of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena, many baseball analysts have ranked the Rays second, just behind the Yankees, in their power rankings for the upcoming season.
As can be expected, the Rays will consider numerous batting orders this year, predicated on the righty vs. lefty pitching match-ups. TBT Rays beat writer, Marc Topkin, put together a possible lineup (below) alternating right-handed and left-handed hitters:
1. LF Desmond Jennings (R)
2. DH Luke Scott (L)
3. 3B Evan Longoria (R)
4. 1B Carlos Peña (L)
5. 2B Ben Zobrist (S)
6. CF B.J. Upton (R)
7. RF Matt Joyce (L)
8. C Jose Molina (R)
9. SS Sean Rodriguez (R) or Reid Brignac (L)
At first, I thought this batting order was a bit off-putting. To be honest, I’d prefer to see Rodriguez bumped up in the batting order. He’s a smart and aggressive base runner, and we all saw what he could add offensively toward the end of last season. Then again, bumping SeanRod up in the order, based solely on his improved numbers at the plate in the last third of 2011, may not necessarily be the wisest decision. Keep in mind too, that the ninth spot is effectively the first in many instances over the span of nine innings.
You’d better believe that JoeMa, and the rest of his saber minded wizards, will obviously change things up based off of righty vs. lefty match ups. Just by looking at the first five hitters in this hypothetical batting order, my word, the Rays are going to be a beast this year!
With all of this in mind, we ask you this, dear reader: What would be your ideal batting order? Feel free to leave your comments below.
January 20th Update: This just in, Carlos Pena is again a Ray. Pena has signed a one year deal, reportedlyworth $7.25 MM. According to MLBTraderumors, the Cubs offered Pena arbitration after the season, so they’ll earn a compensatory draft pick for losing the Type B free agent. However, the Rays don’t have to surrender a pick to add Pena.
Pena will add substantial power to the Rays, who were looking to bolster the power in the lineup in this off-season. I’d be interested to see how the projected offensive numbers may change with the addition of Pena to the roster.
It is bittersweet to say goodbye to Casey Kotchman who will now, presumably, sign elsewhere. I’ve overstated this to a fault already, but it would have been nice to see the addition of a long term player (cough, Mark Trumbo) to the roster. In the end, we’ll be in the exact same spot next year. However, you know exactly what you’re getting in Pena who offers something that neither Trumbo or, arguably, Kotchman could: a motivating leader in the dugout.
Will Rhymes with the Detroit Tigers in 2010. Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty
The Rays signed three players to minor league contracts on Thursday: 28 year-old utility infielder Will Rhymes, 32 year-old outfielder Jesus Feliciano, and 27 year old RHP Romulo Sanchez. In addition, they also re-signed RHP Matt Torra, who spent the second half of the 2011 season in AAA Durham, to a minor league contract. All four are to receive invitations to major-league camp.
Rhymes spent the last two seasons in the Tigers organization where he hit .283 in 83 games. He was surprisingly non-tendered by the Tigers in 2011. You may also recall the name Jesus Feliciano. Feliciano was picked up as a free-agent in 2003 by the (then Devil) Rays. He’s spent the majority of his professional career in the Mets organization, with most of his experience coming at the minor league level.
Sanchez, 1-0 with a 4.04 ERA in 35.2 innings, relies mostly on his mid 90′s fastball, change-up, and slider, and is by all counts a pitch to contact type of pitcher. See Sanchez’s Contact vs. Whiffs pitch F/X below. Sanchez could be another decent arm in the pen that would be brought in, in key situations or used in specific matchups. Finally, Matt Torra went 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA in 11 games last season with AAA Durham. In those appearances Torra gave up 25 earned runs, struck out 31, and had an impressive 1.8 walks per nine innings ratio.
