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Hot-Stove: The Short-Stop Conundrum; Now Adapted to This Post Keppinger World with A Poll

Schmitty — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 14:33:36 +0000

January 27, 2012 Update: I’ve updated this piece (hopefully) one last time. This time around, I re-posted the SS poll from earlier in the week, and added Jeff Keppinger to the list of short-stops/middle infielders that you can choose from. The poll is conveniently located at the bottom of this piece. If you haven’t taken part in our poll yet, what’cha waiting for?!

Going in to the 2011/12 Hot-Stove period, one thing was apparent: The Rays would need to improve in a few areas, namely catching, first base, DH, and short-stop/middle infield*. With the off-season acquisitions of Luke Scott, Carlos Pena, and Jose Molina, the holes in the Rays roster seemed to be all but filled…that is with the exception of short-stop/middle infield. Yet, with less than 25 days until the pitchers and catchers report to camp, Tampa Bay finds itself with a happy conundrum of sorts. See, the Rays will enter spring training with four, potentially five, players vying for the short-stop/middle infield position on the roster. It’s all but certain that Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson, and Will Rhymes will battle it out for one of the three short-stop/middle infield spots on the Rays opening day roster. In the spirit of full disclosure, I’m assuming that the Rays will have three short-stop/middle infield spots on the roster based on last season when Rodriguez, Brignac, and Johnson filled those spots. With this piece we’ll compare those four players offensive and defensive stats to see if we can figure out who might be the best suited for a middle infield roster opening, and who could benefit from a little time in AAA Durham. Let’s start with Sean Rodriguez.

With the trade of Jason Bartlett, someone had to step up to the plate and fill his shoes, urm…cleats. It was obvious at the time that the Rays had some talent on their bench. The question begged, who would fill that position: Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez? While Brignac waded in mediocrity at the plate, eventually finding him in Durham for a time, Rodriguez filled the SS hole more often, platooning with Elliot Johnson. Armed with a sure glove and a good arm, Rodriguez did well defensively. Unfortunately, he was a fairly inconsistent batter (overall) in 2011, hitting .223/.323 OBP/.430 SLG/.761 OPS, with 8 home runs, and 36 RBI’s, on 83 hits in 373 at bats. Though his numbers were fairly lackluster over the span of the entire season, one need look no further than his April, May, and September numbers to get an idea of what he is capable of. Rodriguez, cumulatively, hit .240 BA/.767 OPS/27 RBI in 172 at bats. Too, Rodriguez had his fewest number of strikeouts in September with 10, and tied his high water mark for walks at eight. FanGraphs projects that Rodriguez could hit .246 in 480 at bats in 2012, some 20 points higher than in 2011. He’s also projected to knock in 65 RBI’s, more than doubling last years total. With more productive at bats, less strike outs, and an increased OBA, Rodriguez has the potential to double his offensive production, over last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a break out season of sorts, hitting about his projected batting average.

Defensively speaking, Rodriguez is the most sure handed player of the lot. Rodriguez appeared in 131 games in 2011, and committed 11 errors over the course of the 525 innings that he spent between both short-stop and second base. Comparatively speaking, at a .994 cumulative fielding percentage (FP), Rodriguez is15 points higher than Brignac, 16 points higher than Rhymes, and six points higher than Johnson. Next up: Reid Brignac.

Sean Rodriguez Advanced Batting Statistics

Sean Rodriguez Fielding Statistics

We learned, back in December, that the Rays would be willing to deal Brignac in order to bolster Tampa Bay’s offense. Though a deal involving Brignac has yet come to fruition, the threat of a deal should have sent Reid a very specific message: put up good numbers in 2012, or expect to be moved back down to Durham in the least, or dealt away at most. To say that Brignac had a pretty pathetic 2011 is like saying it’s hot here in Florida during the summer. That is to say, Captain Obvious couldn’t do a better job stating the obvious. Brignac had a slash-line of .193 BA/.227 OBP/.221 SLG/.448 OPS with 15 RBI’s on 48 hits, and 63 strikeouts in 249 at bats, all over the span of the 92 games he appeared in. These numbers are certainly not indicative of his nom de plume, Louisiana Lightning. Brignac has been projected by Rotochamp to increase his batting average by 48 points in 195 at bats. However, he is only projected to tack on four more RBI’s to his less than stellar 2011 showing. I think it would be safe to say his place on the Rays roster would be up for grabs if these projections do indeed pan out. It’s a shame really. Defensively, Brignac is a fairly solid player. With a .979 FP over the course of 683 innings of play, Brignac made seven errors, five of which were fielding errors. To be blunt, if his offense held a candle to his defense, his name could easily be penciled in the roster. Next on the hot seat: Elliot Johnson.

Reid Brignac Advanced Batting Statistics

Reid Brignac Fielding Statistics

Elliot Johnson found himself in similar straights last year. He, however, was never bumped back down to AAA. Johnson had a slash line of .194 BA/.257 OBP/.338 SLG/.595 OPS, with 17 RBI’s in 31 hits, including four home-runs and 53 strike outs in 160 at bats. Johnson had similar numbers to Reid Brignac, but two differences stand out: A) Johnson’s numbers are based on a smaller sample size, B) Johnson walked more and struck out less within that smaller sample size. Johnson is projected to have 180 at bats in 2012, and yet again produce more, and strike out less than Brignac. Johnson is also fairly good defensively, but his smaller sample size makes it hard to gauge how well he’d perform over the duration of a whole season because of that. Finally: Will Rhymes.

Elliot Johnson Advanced Batting Statistics

Elliot Johnson Fielding Statistics

Rhymes can be summed up in a one line simple description: a contact hitter with low power and a good walk rate. A career .283 hitter with (close to) a 1 BB/K ratio, Rhymes hit .306 BA/.377 OBP/.390 SLG/.767 OPS in 2010, with 19 RBI’s on 58 hits, including 12 doubles. Comparatively speaking, in 2012 Rhymes is projected to produce similarly to 2010 with around 40 more at bats. With that increased number of at bats, it can be assumed that he could drive in 10 (give or take) more runs. Defensively, Rhymes is slightly above average, and comparable to Elliot Johnson. Rhymes has a career .982 FP, and has committed only six errors in 600 innings. It bears mentioning that Rhymes has that Sam Fuld, play hard and put it all out there, quality.

Will Rhymes Advanced Batting Statistics

Will Rhymes Fielding Statistics

If the potential for Rodriguez, Brignac, Johnson, and Rhymes to make the roster was based solely on their Wins Above Replacement probability (WARp), it would look something like this: Sean Rodriguez (1.2), Will Rhymes (-0.2), Elliot Johnson (-0.3), and Reid Brignac (-0.6). That looks good to me, if only it was that simple though. For one, Rhymes signed a minor league contract, and you could expect that Tampa Bay would treat him in a similar fashion with that of Casey Kotchman at the beginning of last season. Start him in Durham, and see how things play out. Then again, you never know. Rodriguez and Brignac will probably battle it out for the primary short-stop spot, leaving Johnson and Rhymes to battle it out for that middle infield utility position. Personally, I’d love to see Rodriguez as the primary short-stop going into spring training…let the other three battle it out for the last two spots.

*I included middle infield because though it can be assumed that Ben Zobrist will be an everyday player, we can’t be certain exactly where. I’d expect him to play consistently in the two spots that he spent most of his time last season: second base and right field.

January 26, 2012 Update:

I’ve had to rethink things a bit since it was officially announced that Tampa Bay signed a one year deal with Jeff Keppinger. I think it would be safe to assume that with the two off-season acquisitions, the three on the roster in 2011, as well as Rays’ minor league prospects Hak Ju Lee and Tim Beckham, who were also invited to spring training, that there will be steady competition for the short-stop/middle infield spot.

I still think that Sean Rodriguez could be an everyday player, or in the least, consistently in the lineup. I also think that Ben Zobrist will be in the lineup close to everyday, though whether he’s playing the infield or outfield would be determined by the pitching matchups vs. Matt Joyce. That being said, Tampa Bay now has a plethora of players to choose from, to fill those spots when Rodriguez and Zobrist aren’t in the lineup.

I’m not sure if Hak Ju Lee or Tim Beckham is ready to make the leap from AAA to the big leagues just yet. True, the Rays have put players that could be considered 4A players into the lineup (cough, Brignac and Johnson) in the past. Mind you, neither Brignac nor Johnson has excelled at this level. I firmly believe that Brignac and Johnson were previously in the lineup to fill holes in the roster. Now, there are potentially suitable replacements for them.

In kind, though Lee and Beckham are projected to have decent years at the plate, and both are good defensively. One thing is holding them back, and I think it’s enough to give them another year in AAA to work out the kinks; their plate discipline just isn’t there. RotoChamp’s projections have them, cumulatively, striking out 312 times. Granted, RotoChamp also has them cumulatively driving in 99 runs, I fear that if what Johnny Damon said is true about lack of production out of the SS spot is true, (mind you, odds are against both of them coming up at the same time) then I’m not certain if bringing up those players at the beginning of the season is an improvement offensively or not.

As I mentioned before, I think it’s safe to assume that Brignac will start the season on the Rays roster, finding Rhymes in Durham. Keppinger doesn’t change things on that end, in my eyes at least. And again, it’s not a question of if Brignac will be sent down or dealt away; rather it’s a question of when. Rhymes will come up at some point sooner or later to fill that vacated spot. If anyone is to be odd-man-out because of Keppinger, it’s Elliot Johnson. Let’s take a look at the Rays newest acquisition.

Jeff Keppinger, 31, can be described as Elliot Johnson, but better offensively. Keppinger spent time with two teams in 2011, the Giants and the Astros, and in 400 plate appearances he hit .277 BA/.300 OBP/.377 SLG/.295 OBA. RotoChamp has him upping his production all across the board in 2012. Keppinger has great eyes and patience, and you’ve got to love his 2010 walk to strike-out ratio of 1.5 BB/K. The defensive side of things is where the comparisons to Elliot Johnson can be drawn. Similar to Johnson, Keppinger has a good glove, but seems to be lacking in the range department. He’s slightly above average but nothing to write home about. Like Johnson, Keppinger is best suited as a reserve player. I think he has enough to, thankfully, snag that spot away from Elliot Johnson.

With all of this in mind, I think will see Rodriguez, Brignac, and Keppinger on the opening day roster, while Rhymes waits with baited breath, in Durham, for his chance to come back up to the bigs.

Poll: Who Should Get the Starting SS Spot On the Roster?

Schmitty — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 14:32:12 +0000

With the recent acquisition of former Tigers infielder, Will Rhymes, the Rays find themselves in an interesting position. Going into Spring Training, the Rays will effectively have four infielders, or outright short stops, battling it out for a spot on the roster. We’re diligently writing about the battle for shortstop at the moment. However, we’d like to know what you think! Should Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac battle it out for the starting SS position, while Will Rhymes and Elliot Johnson go at it for a utility infielder position? Go ahead and take our poll below. Feel free to add comments in the, well, comments section for why you think that player should get one of the spots on the roster.

Lions, Tigers, and Zimmer Bears

Schmitty — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 18:48:27 +0000

The Rays released their 2012 promotional schedule today. Granted there are lots of cool little knickknacks interspersed with a few crappier items on the list…what else is new, right? Among the list is what could arguably be the coolest freebie ever: the Don Zimmer teddy-bear. The Zim Bear (seen below, on the left) rolls out on the 29th of June. Words cannot do this promotional freebie any justice.

Baseball America Top Prospects Released; Moore, Archer, Lee, and Guerrieri Crack the Top 100

Schmitty — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 18:04:21 +0000

Photo by: J. Meric/Getty Images

Baseball America released its “2012 Top 100 Prospects” today, finding four Ray prospects making the list: LHP phenom Matt Moore, RHP Chris Archer, SS Hak-Ju Lee, and RHP Taylor Guerrieri. Moore leads the list of Rays at number two, only behind Bryce Harper of the Washinton Nationals. Rounding the list off are Hak-Ju Lee is 44th, Chris Archer is 89th, and Taylor Guerrieri is 90th. “He (Matt Moore) makes it look so easy, and he’s so good he’ll make David Price a No. 2 starter” say the folks at Baseball America, who put this list together.

Baseball is FINALLY Back, Now with An Annotated Checklist

Schmitty — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 17:22:34 +0000

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, spring training is upon us! The Hot-Stove period is over, the Rays have, presumably, made all of the off-season moves they’re going to make, and it’s time to turn our attention from the lesser sports like football (thank god that crap fest is over) and the atrocious NBA, back to baseball. And I, for one, am ready for baseball! There is easily as much, if not more, excitement for the 2012 season as there was for the 2010 season. The Yankees have already pulled the first punch with the news that:

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman admitted Sunday his team “conceded” the American League East division to the Rays two years ago, saying the Wild Card setup at the time made the title mean “nothing more than a t-shirt and a hat (source, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).

Kids, it’s going to get ugly this year. Then again, maybe those overpaid jag-offs need to bolster their ego somehow, since they really didn’t do much this off-season. Not to mention, they’ve got to make news somehow, since the majority of the attention in the AL has been placed firmly on the Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Rangers. Besides, we’ve got bigger fish to fry. For one, who’ll be the primary short-stop, and what will the Rays do with the seven starters on the roster?

Below are a couple of things pertinent to the start of spring training; the roster including the non roster invites, and a breakdown of what’s going to happen, and when. The roster is noticeably missing a few of the more recent acquisitions. I went ahead and asterisked them beneath the chart. If you notice any errors, don’t hesitate to mention them in the comments section.

Spring Training Roster (including non-roster invites)

	40-Man Roster
	Pitchers	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
35	Christopher Archer	R-R	6’3″	185	Sep 26, 1988
45	Burke Badenhop	R-R	6’5″	220	Feb 8, 1983
44	Matt Bush	R-R	5’9″	180	Feb 8, 1986
53	Alex Cobb	R-R	6’2″	195	Oct 7, 1987
	Alexander Colome	R-R	6’2″	185	Dec 31, 1988
40	Wade Davis	R-R	6’5″	220	Sep 7, 1985
49	Dane De La Rosa	R-R	6’7″	245	Feb 1, 1983
43	Kyle Farnsworth	R-R	6’4″	230	Apr 14, 1976
47	Brandon Gomes	R-R	5’11″	175	Jul 15, 1984
58	Jeremy Hellickson	R-R	6’1″	185	Apr 8, 1987
74	J.P. Howell	L-L	6’0″	195	Apr 25, 1983
52	Josh Lueke	R-R	6’5″	235	Dec 5, 1984
57	Jake McGee	L-L	6’3″	230	Aug 6, 1986
55	Matt Moore	L-L	6’2″	205	Jun 18, 1989
34	Jeff Niemann	R-R	6’9″	260	Feb 28, 1983
62	Joel Peralta	R-R	5’11″	195	Mar 23, 1976
14	David Price	L-L	6’6″	225	Aug 26, 1985
27	Cesar Ramos	L-L	6’2″	205	Jun 22, 1984
56	Fernando Rodney	R-R	5’11″	220	Mar 18, 1977
	Wilking Rodriguez	R-R	6’1″	160	Mar 2, 1990
33	James Shields	R-R	6’4″	220	Dec 20, 1981
50	Albert Suarez	R-R	6’2″	185	Oct 8, 1989
	Alexander Torres	L-L	5’10″	175	Dec 8, 1987
	Catchers	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
38	Robinson Chirinos	R-R	6’1″	195	Jun 5, 1984
31	Jose Lobaton	S-R	6’0″	195	Oct 21, 1984
28	Jose Molina	R-R	6’2″	250	Jun 3, 1975
	Stephen Vogt	L-R	6’0″	215	Nov 1, 1984
	Infielders	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
15	Reid Brignac	L-R	6’3″	195	Jan 16, 1986
9	Elliot Johnson	S-R	6’0″	190	Mar 9, 1984
7	Jeff Keppinger	R-R	6’0″	185	Apr 21, 1980
3	Evan Longoria	R-R	6’2″	210	Oct 7, 1985
	Carlos Pena	L-L	6’2″	225	May 17, 1978
1	Sean Rodriguez	R-R	6’0″	200	Apr 26, 1985
	Outfielders	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
5	Sam Fuld	L-L	5’10″	180	Nov 20, 1981
11	Brandon Guyer	R-R	6’1″	210	Jan 28, 1986
8	Desmond Jennings	R-R	6’2″	200	Oct 30, 1986
30	Luke Scott	L-R	6’0″	205	Jun 25, 1978
2	B.J. Upton	R-R	6’3″	185	Aug 21, 1984
18	Ben Zobrist	S-R	6’3″	200	May 26, 1981
	Designated Hitters	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
20	Matt Joyce	L-R	6’2″	205	Aug 3, 1984

	Non-Roster Invitees
	Pitchers	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
	Bryan Augenstein	R-R	6’6″	230	Jul 11, 1986
	Marquis Fleming	R-R	6’1″	185	Sep 11, 1986
	Jhonny Nunez	L-R	6’3″	215	Nov 26, 1985
	Ricky Orta	R-R	6’2″	195	Nov 6, 1984
	Ryan Reid	L-R	6’0″	215	Apr 24, 1985
	Romulo Sanchez	R-R	6’5″	270	Apr 28, 1984
	Matt Torra	R-R	6’3″	225	Jun 29, 1984
	Catchers	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
	Craig Albernaz	R-R	5’8″	195	Oct 30, 1982
41	Nevin Ashley	R-R	6’1″	215	Aug 14, 1984
	Mark Thomas	R-R	6’1″	180	May 5, 1988
	Infielders	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
	Tim Beckham	R-R	6’0″	190	Jan 27, 1990
	Hak-Ju Lee	L-R	6’2″	170	Nov 4, 1990
	Matt Mangini	L-R	6’4″	230	Dec 21, 1985
	Juan Miranda	L-L	6’0″	220	Apr 25, 1983
	Will Rhymes	L-R	5’9″	155	Apr 1, 1983
	Outfielders	B/T	Ht	Wt	DOB
	Brad Coon	L-L	6’0″	175	Dec 11, 1982
	Jesus Feliciano	L-L	5’10″	190	Jun 6, 1979
	Jeff Salazar

* Catcher Chris Gimenez, outfielders Brad Coon and Jeff Salazar

February 21 Update: Please note, I’ll be updating the checklist (below) frequently with anecdotes and other applicable information as spring training progresses.

Dates to keep in the back of your mind, now with an annotated checklist

X Monday, February 20: Pitchers and catcher report; Friedman and Maddon spring training press conference.

X Tuesday, February 21: First workout; all 38 pitchers and catchers reported to today’s first workout. 13 of the 21 position players have checked in as well. B.J. Upton was one of those positions, and is reportedly “a few pounds heavier (up to 190) and “a little bit stronger,” says Rays beat writer Marc Topkin, after off-season workouts a Tampa gym. Brandon Gomes, who is coming off of back surgery, will throw a bullpen session later today.

Click this photo to see a set of photos from the 2/21 workout, courtesy of the Tampa Bay Time. Photo by James Borchuck/Tampa Bay Times

Saturday, February 25: Position players report

Sunday, February 26: First full squad workout

Thursday, March 1: Intrasquad game.

Saturday, March 3: Exhibition opener vs. Twins in Fort Myers

Friday, April 6: Season opener vs. Yankees at Tropicana Field

Photo’s From FanFest

Schmitty — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 04:00:23 +0000

Clockwise from the top left: Fernando Rodney, Luke Scott, Sean Rodriguez high-fiving fans, and a panel discussion with Jeremy Hellickson, Stan Boroski, and Jim Hickey

Clockwise from the top left: Crowd at the Trop, Kyle Farnsworth, Matt Moore in the foreground and Alex Cobb in the background, and Brandon Guyer

Do you have any pictures from FanFest? Would you like to share them with the world? Send them our way so we can add them to this post.

Spring Training Is Only Hours Away!

Schmitty — Sun, 19 Feb 2012 23:42:32 +0000

The four months of purgatory, between the end of one season and the beginning of another, is over! The flowers are blooming, the weather is beautiful, and there’s an extra bounce in my step. Yes folks, the official beginning to Spring Training is only hours away. Some players, like Sam Fuld, are already in Port Charlotte. “First day in Port Charlotte. White baseballs, freshly cut grass, new glove all tough to beat!!!” said super Sammy, in a tweet.

Pitchers and catchers report bright and early tomorrow. To say that there is again (and for good reason) a buzz surrounding the Rays would be like saying Luke Scott looked like the Wolverine yesterday at FanFest. Uh, I’ll post that picture soon.

Nevertheless, It’s time to close up shop on the Hot-Stove period, and knock of the dust and cobwebs that otherwise accrued on our nimble little fingers over the course of the last four months. Ladies and gents, baseball season is upon us! And well, we couldn’t be more excited!

We’ll be posting photos from FanFest shortly. In the meantime, did you take any photos yesterday? Would you like to share them with the (ha) world? Well, send them our way!

By the way, check out the today’s edition of Times, either online or in print. Topkin and company published some amazing pieces to warm you up. We’ll post links to those pieces soon.

Get pumped, it’s time for Raysball season! As always, GO RAYS!

2/20/12 Update: Today’s the day! So, where do you see the Rays finishing this year? Also, how deep will they get in the post-season? Leave your comments below.

FlanFest!!!

Danger McKlintock — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 14:52:44 +0000

I loooooove flan, that creamy, dreamy Mexican dessert!

But let me “keep it real” for a second here. Monday marks the official beginning of Spring Training with Price, Shieldsy, and the rest of pitchers and catchers reporting for duty. Five days later the rest of the boys show up, along with new additions and we’re under way. FanFest, though, counts for me as the unofficial official start of spring training, where fans get to report for duty a couple days early.

It’s that exciting time of year again, and I’m feeling a little fire in the belly!

FanFest 2012…Let’s Meet Up!

Schmitty — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 20:00:00 +0000

T-Minus less than two days until FanFest on Saturday! For those of you still thinking about whether to go or not, allow me to answer for you. YES, YOU SHOULD GO!

I got to thinking, and I came up with an idea. I said, “Self, it’d be pretty damn sweet if we could meet up with some of the local folks that read this here blog at FanFest.” That said, would anyone be game, to have an informal meeting of the minds down at the Trop on Saturday, sometime between 10:00 AM and 5:00 PM? We Who knows, we may even have stickers to give away then (cough). Depending on what you all think, we can come up with a time and place within those hours in a bit. Please, let us know your thoughts on this idea.

Hot-Stove: Joe Maddon and the Rays Sign a Three Year Contract Extension, Updated with the 2/15/12 Press Conference

Schmitty — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 18:26:11 +0000

As per a tweet from Marc Topkin, a 3-year contract extension with Rays and skipper, Joe Maddon, is in the books. The official announcement of the deal, presumably with all of the pertinent information (terms, etc) will be made at a press conference scheduled for Wednesday, February 15, at 11:00 AM. The Rays and Joe Ma began working on a contract extension back in December, but amicably halted those talks shortly thereafter with the promise of kick-starting those talks shortly after Maddon’s return from an over-seas trip. Maddon’s current contract will be up at the end of the season.

Honestly, did any of you really think that JoeMa wouldn’t sign an extension? Maddon has made no bones to having an affinity for this area. Too, Andrew Friedman made it mentioned on more than one occasion, that he felt confident an agreement would be reached, and mentioned in a radio interview last week that, “My expectation is to work with Joe for a long time.”

February 15th Update: Merlot Joe will, reportedly, make about $6 MM total over the course of three years. “I believe I have the best spot in all of Major League Baseball,” Maddon said during the press conference. ”This is the most interesting place to be involved, I know the grass isn’t any greener, the turf isn’t any greener.” I think it’s safe to say that Maddon is an asset to our community, both sports and otherwise. ”I want to do this for a long time,” Maddon said. Though he was a touch vague about whether that long time would be spent in this area, one would assume that he is content here, and hasn’t any aspirations of being anywhere else. The Rays also announced they will make a $100,000 donation to Maddon’s charities. I say here here to that! Click the link to hear the press conference in its entirety, via 620 WDAE Joe Maddon Press Conference 2-15.